There’s a big difference between 1-1 and 0-2.
Not only does losing the first two games of the season make a team feel just a bit more desperate, but in this year’s stacked Western Conference, starting behind the 8-ball makes qualifying for the playoffs that much harder. Both the Mavs and Jazz fell in their respective season openers, so tonight we’ll see two teams desperate to get in the win column.
There are two modes of thinking when it comes to considering the importance of a potential win. The first is this is just a November game, so winning isn’t imperative. The other, more realistic take, however, is that every single game matters in the West, and it’s a lesson that Dallas, Memphis, and Phoenix learned last season, as the three teams battled down to literally the last shot of the season to see who would make which seed in the playoffs. It’s almost painfully cliche to say each game is the most important contest of the season, but it’s going to prove to be true in 2014-15.
This also happens to be the Mavs’ home opener, which adds another level of excitement to a game with a fair amount of intrigue. This is the first official glimpse Dallas fans will get in-person of the roster, and it’s also their first chance to see JJ Barea since he signed with the team yesterday. He’ll be active tonight and available to play, but whether or not he takes the floor is ultimately up to head coach Rick Carlisle.
It’s the home opener, Chandler Parsons’s Dallas debut, the return of Barea (and Tyson Chandler, don’t forget), and a game the Mavs are out to win. No matter which way you slice it, this is a game you’ll want to see.
OFFENSE | |||||||
Dallas Offense | Jazz Defense | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Points/100 poss. | 111.2 (3) | 111.3 (29) | |||||
eFG% | 52.6 (T-4) | 51.8 (T-26) | |||||
TOV% | 12.7 (5) | 12.1 (29) | |||||
Off/Def Reb% | 24.6 (23) | 74.5 (T-14) | |||||
FT/FGA | .201 (20) | .227 (T-20) |
*Above stats from the 2013-14 season
Perhaps Utah’s biggest strength on the defensive end of the floor is the presence of Derrick Favors in the middle. The fifth-year big man is still just 23 years old and has made steady growth year-to-year. He averaged 1.5 blocks per game last season and faced the 18th-most attempts at the rim of any player in the NBA, per SportVU. Of the 17 players ahead of him, only nine allowed a lower field goal percentage on shots at the rim than Favors’s 51.3 percent mark. Dallas has clearly made a push to penetrate in the very, very early stages of the season, and the team’s stable of guards will have a tall challenge waiting for them when they get in the paint. He blocked four shots in the season-opening loss to Houston, a team with similar offensive intentions as Dallas.
Backup center Rudy Gobert is another intimidating rim protector; the 7′ 2″ center has a 9′ 7″ standing reach and set the NBA Draft Combine record with a 7′ 8.5″ wingspan. He’s got some of the longest arms in the league and the springy verticality of Brandan Wright, making the young Frenchman a premier shot-blocking prospect. Between Gobert and Favors, Utah is well-equipped to contest close attempts. It’s up to the Mavericks to find angles that can minimize the centers’ defensive impact.
That, however, leads to one of the Jazz’s biggest team weaknesses on the defensive end of the floor. Utah allowed opponents to hit 37.6 percent of their three-point attempts last season, third-worst in the NBA. To be fair, Utah surrendered just 599 treys in 2013-14, 10th-best in the league. The Mavs attempted the 12th-most treys and hit them at the second-highest rate last year. If the Dallas playmakers — including all the guards and Chandler Parsons — are able to slice and dice the Jazz perimeter defense, they’ll have plenty of passing options if they choose not to shoot over Favors.
Aside from Favors and Gobert, the Jazz will likely play wings Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks heavy minutes. Hayward isn’t a poor defender, though his 111 defensive rating might suggest otherwise. He has the length to stay in front of a player like Monta Ellis, but the threat of Chandler Parsons on the opposite wing will probably force new head coach Quin Snyder to stick his best starting perimeter defender on the new Maverick. That means Burks will be tasked with slowing Ellis down, which is a tough task for anybody. One of the beauties of this Mavs team is opposing teams’ starting lineups typically feature only one truly dangerous perimeter defender (with others coming off the bench), turning scheming for Dallas into a “pick-your-poison” affair.
DEFENSE | |||||||
Dallas Defense | Jazz Offense | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Points/100 poss. | 108.7 (22) | 103.5 (25) | |||||
eFG% | 51.5 (T-24) | 48.4 (T-22) | |||||
TOV% | 14.8 (T-5) | 13.9 (T-16) | |||||
Off/Def Reb% | 72.7 (25) | 25.5 (16) | |||||
FT/FGA | .229 (22) | .202 (18) |
Last season, most of the Jazz action ran through Hayward. He comes from a similar mold as Parsons — he’s a 6-foot-8 forward who can facilitate an offense and stuff a stats sheet. He showed as much in Utah’s season opener; though he suffered an off shooting night, he still finished with eight points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. This season, more of the offensive responsibility is likely going to shift toward second-year point guard Trey Burke, who missed the beginning of his rookie year due to injury and therefore began his campaign already behind. Burke arguably has more of a scorer’s mentality than Hayward, but he’s every bit as effective when passing the ball. Last season, he assisted on almost 30 percent of his teammates’ makes while he was on the floor.
Losing Richard Jefferson to the Mavs hurt the Jazz’s three-point shooting. Utah finished 25th in three-point percentage last season and could potentially finish lower this season, as Jefferson was the only player on the ’13-’14 roster to shoot higher than 37.5 percent from three. To fill that shooting void, the Jazz signed veteran Steve Novak and drafted sharpshooter Rodney Hood. The former didn’t play in the season opener, while Hood hit 1-of-4 from deep. As a team, Utah converted on just three long-range attempts against the Rockets. However, after conceding 14 threes against the Spurs, Dallas will look to limit Utah’s open looks from deep, no matter what their percentages are.
Another way Utah is looking to add deep shooting is by allowing young center Enes Kanter to attempt expanding his range to the three-point line. Last season, both Kanter and Favors manned the middle, essentially clogging the paint. But if Kanter is going to stand further from the rim, he’ll naturally open up more driving lanes for players like Hayward and Burke. Dirk Nowitzki will likely be assigned to check Kanter, while Tyson Chandler will be matched up with Favors on the inside.
The key to extending Dallas’s five-game winning streak against the Jazz is to make things difficult for them. That’s a pretty simple statement, but it’s the truth. The Mavs have the edge in talent and coaching — although Snyder is highly regarded. It will come down to Dallas moving on from the tough loss in San Antonio and playing up to its potential in the home opener. The hallmark of the 2011 Mavs was their ability to forget both wins and losses — not getting too high and not getting too low. This is a good opportunity to prove just that. If Dallas can execute the gameplan, Dallas is in a prime position to win.
Share and comment