Dallas is off to a blistering start to the 2014-15 season. The offense has sizzled to the tune of nearly 110 points per game and more than 120 points per 100 possessions, two marks that are head and shoulders above the rest of the league.

The Boston Celtics will roll into town this evening, and it’s the type of game the Mavericks must win. The only predictable element of the Western Conference this season is that it is completely unpredictable; much like last season, the standings will change significantly day after day for the next five months. The East, meanwhile, has a much clearer hierarchy. Taking nothing away from the Celtics’ current squad, Boston likely will not be a playoff team this season. And after the C’s played in Houston just the other night, the Mavs must come out looking to put the game away early, much like they did against the Utah Jazz.

Road teams tend to be more heavy-legged than home teams toward the ends of games, as the wear and tear of travel combined with the mental fatigue brought along by playing away from home take their toll after a while. But if Dallas can jump on Boston early, the Mavs have a chance to lock up an all-important victory without having to worry about more late-game drama like they had in New Orleans over the weekend.

OFFENSE
Mavs Offense Celtics Defense
Points/100 poss. 120.4 (1) 104.8 (13)
eFG% 56.3 (2) 51.6 (20)
TOV% 10.0 (3) 17.8 (6)
Off/Def Reb% 27.5 (12) 74.7 (12)
FT/FGA .179 (26) .308 (28)

The only way Boston can slow down the Dallas offense is if perimeter defenders Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart can stay in front of Monta Ellis and the rest of the Dallas backcourt. That task is much easier said than done, as the Mavs have four guards including Ellis who can drive to the rim seemingly at will. Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, and JJ Barea have terrorized defenses this season — the Mavs’ depth at the position allows head coach Rick Carlisle to freely rotate them in and out so they’re always at full speed. Rondo, Bradley, and Smart are all above-average to great defenders, and they have the length and quickness to combat the speedy Mavs guards.

The frontcourt is where Dallas will find its biggest advantage. The Celtics’ Jeff Green is a fine player, but he’s not the type of defender who can limit Chandler Parsons’s offensive activity. Parsons has found his groove after a slow start against the Spurs, scoring 20.5 points on 51.7 percent shooting since opening night. The Mavs’ biggest luxury this season is being able to rely on more than just Ellis to carry the offensive load should the opponent elect to try shutting him down — that led Parsons to declare opposing teams must “pick their poison” when defending Dallas.

Similarly, Dirk Nowitzki is primed to have a big night, as well. Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk are both talented young players, but neither have the strength and size needed to defend Nowitzki. Dirk will be attempting to bounce back from his 8-of-19 shooting night in New Orleans on Saturday, so look out for a few early play calls to get the Big German going.

DEFENSE
Mavs Defense Celtics Offense
Points/100 poss. 112.4 (27) 105.8 (16)
eFG% 53.1 (26) 48.7 (17)
TOV% 15.7 (11) 10.5 (4)
Off/Def Reb% 69.8 (27) 25.0 (18)
FT/FGA .207 (10) .161 (30)

The most important thing to remember about the Celtics’ attack is that Rajon Rondo is an offensive maestro. He conducts player movement and initiates every set with masterful precision, a huge reason why he’s averaged at least 9.8 assists per game five seasons running. Rondo has never been the greatest outside shooter, though his jumper has shown gradual year-to-year improvement throughout his career. Dallas defenders must keep that in mind tonight against the Boston quarterback, because if Rondo can knife his way into the lane with any regularity, the Mavs defense is in trouble. Rondo basically always finds the right pass.

Logically, that would lead us to fear Boston shooters. The Celtics aren’t a poor perimeter shooting team, although they did go 1-of-25 on three-pointers against the Rockets, the most three-pointers ever attempted in a game by a team with just one make. Bradley and the aforementioned Rondo have struggled with their three-point shot over the years, and the small forward Green shot 34.1 percent from deep last season.

Boston’s biggest long-range threat is probably reserve Marcus Thornton, who played part of last season with Sacramento before being traded to Brooklyn. The microwave hit seven treys in three games against Dallas in 2013-14, including four in a win last March. In that game, he scored 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Devin Harris spend some time chasing Thornton around the floor while the Mavs’ other guards worry about Rondo, but it’s a tough choice to make. The Celtics will almost surely need to break at least 100 in order to beat Dallas, which means they’ll need contributions from everyone, up and down the roster. That’s where Thornton comes in. You don’t want him lighting you up for 15, 18 points off the bench.

One place to look for improvement from the Mavs tonight is in the defensive rebounding category. Dallas has struggled to consistently close possessions on the defensive glass thus far, mostly because that’s what happens when you play against guys like Anthony Davis and Omer Asik. But the Mavs have a major size advantage over the Celtics frontcourt tonight, so I expect the Mavs to limit the C’s on the offensive glass. It especially becomes important if Boston is going to end up taking tons of threes — long shots make long rebounds, which lead either to fast breaks or to deflating second-chance opportunities. That might end up being one of Carlisle’s big focal points tonight.

On paper, Dallas is the superior team. But as we all know, games aren’t played on paper. That’s an old, tired cliche, but it’s entirely appropriate for tonight’s games. These are the contests the Mavs must take if they hope to reach the 50-win plateau — and, who knows? — it might take 50 wins to make the playoffs this season.

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