What To Watch For: Mavs at Pelicans

The Dallas offense could not have played much better against the Utah Jazz in the team’s home opener, and there are plenty of reasons for every player on the team to feel good about themselves heading into the third game of the season. But once the game tips off, there will be a few monsters waiting for them in New Orleans.

As good as the Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler frontline is for the Mavs, the Pelicans have one that is arguably just as good and perhaps even deeper. New Orleans has struggled in the West standings during the past several seasons — ever since the Chris Paul trade with the L.A. Clippers — but this year’s team is different in a much, much better way. This is one of those contests in which past records mean absolutely nothing.

Similar to the Mavericks’ situation, New Orleans is rolling out seemingly an entirely new roster this season. Ryan Anderson missed 60 games, Jrue Holiday missed 48, Eric Gordon 18, and Anthony Davis 15. Also new into the fold is center Omer Asik, who spent the last two seasons with the Houston Rockets. The Pelicans’ two leaders in games played last season, Al-Farouq Aminu and Anthony Morrow, have moved on to different clubs.

New Orleans is a hugely talented team that is going to make some noise once the players get comfortable with each other. This could be a really tight game.

*Above stats from the 2013-14 season

Don’t let those defensive numbers deceive you. There’s a real chance the Pelicans could be one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, especially when it comes to protecting the rim. Davis and Asik combined for 14 blocks in the season opener against Orlando (Davis also added 17 rebounds) and are two long, solid interior defenders.

Fortunately for Dallas, Dirk Nowitzki and Chandler Parsons — when the latter is playing the 4 — have the range to draw one of those guys away from the basket, which could perhaps open up driving lanes that weren’t available to the Magic a few nights ago. The Mavs have been able to terrorize defenses so far when their playmakers are able to penetrate, so the offense’s performance will rely on executing in the paint. That means attacking Davis and Asik smartly, and not going up weak. They’re both excellent shot blockers and will thwart any soft attempts at the basket. The Dallas perimeter players have displayed some pretty marvelous interior passing to this point, and that will need to continue to keep the Pelicans’ towers off-balance.

When Aminu left New Orleans to sign with Dallas, the Pelicans lost their best perimeter defender. Holiday has put together a couple nice defensive seasons in years past, but injuries limited his effectiveness last season. Of course, as the Mavs have learned with Tyson Chandler, playing in front of a rim protector (or two) makes any guard that much better defensively. The Pelicans can play a style of defense that funnels attackers toward their shot blockers, and that’s likely what Gordon will try against Monta Ellis.

Last season, the Mavericks combated Davis’s rim presence by bombarding New Orleans with three-point attempts, shooting 25.3 of them per game in the teams’ four matchups, more than all but two West teams. Dallas hit 11.5 treys per contest against the Pelicans, second-most of any of their opponents behind just the Clippers. If the Mavs guards and Parsons can find their way into the paint, there will likely be a spot-up shooter nearby, and it will probably be Nowitzki. The Big German attempted 23 threes against New Orleans last season, hitting 11 of them. Again, if Dirk is chillin’ on the perimeter, either Davis or Asik will have to guard him, otherwise they risk giving up an easy two (or three) points. That plays right into Dallas’s hands. Nowitzki had a 40-point game against the Pelicans last season, a contest in which he hit 5-of-9 three-pointers.

Maybe the Pelicans’ biggest weakness is three-point shooting, although one player can turn that dark spot into a bright one. Ryan Anderson was averaging 19.8 points per game last season before injury sidelined him for the rest of the year after just 22 games. He’s a career 38.6 three-point shooter but hasn’t shot below 38.2 percent beyond the arc since 2009-10. He’s an absolute assassin from deep, and with the versatility to play either forward spot, the Pelicans can deploy him in ways that can exploit matchups on the offensive side of the floor.

In many ways, he’s an ideal complement to Anthony Davis should New Orleans decide to play those two up front, as Anderson draws one big away from the basket while the other is left one-on-one with the extremely talented Davis — who many are calling the third-best player in the NBA. Davis is an athletic wonder and last season, at just 20 years old, finished fourth in the league with a 26.5 PER. He’s a monster, and pairing him alongside Anderson presents all sorts of problems for opposing defenses.

Tyson Chandler and the rest of the Dallas bigs are going to have their hands full with the Pelicans’ forwards, which means the perimeter defenders are going to need to keep the Pelicans’ guards in front of them. If Holiday or Tyreke Evans are able to consistently get into the lane, it could be a long night for the Mavs. Evans scored 6.8 points per game on 10.3 drives to the rim last season — the former placed him second in the NBA behind only Ellis, while the latter placed third. And that was playing without Holiday, a point guard fully capable of doing the same things: When healthy last season, Holiday drove the lane 8.1 times, creating 9.5 team points per game, 12th-best in the NBA.

This is the type of game that will test every aspect of both the Mavs’ attack and defense, and I’m sure that, to a certain degree, head coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t mind. After outplaying a tired Jazz squad two nights ago, the Mavs have a tricky test in front of them, and it’s a good measuring stick for Carlisle. What exactly is this new Dallas team capable of? Theoretically this is a game Dallas should win, but Davis is the type of player who can win a game by himself and he’s surrounded by players who, when they click, can also put up a formidable fight. It’s likely to be a pretty exciting game, and one that could also be a down-to-the-wire nail-biter.