What To Watch For: Mavs at 76ers

You don’t get much time to celebrate in this league.

After earning their biggest win of the season, the Mavericks have a quick 24-hour reprieve to get ready for the Philadelphia 76ers. It doesn’t matter what their record is, just like for Dallas it doesn’t matter what happened in Toronto last night. All that matters is today, and today the Mavs are going to face a rested team desperate for its first win of the season. Philly has had three days to prepare for this one. Dallas has had less than one.

This league also doesn’t leave much room for thinking about the distant past, either. The Mavericks beat the 76ers by 53 points just a couple weeks ago, but things have been difficult for Dallas since and now’s no time to let up on an opponent — especially on the road — just because there was a lopsided result several games ago. And without Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavs must work even harder to make up for his offense.

The Sixers aren’t the Raptors, sure, but they’re still capable of beating teams at home, especially when those opponents are playing on the second night of a back-to-back. It’s going to take another gritty performance like we saw last night to beat this Philly team. Let’s see if Dallas is up for the challenge.

We know the types of advantages Dallas has offensively. The Mavs were able to get basically whatever they wanted on that end of the floor in the teams’ first meeting earlier this November, when Dallas scored 123 points in regulation. The entire game was one big highlight reel, and it made for fun watching that night and the next day.

That, however, was the season debut of reigning Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams and the return of rookie Nerlens Noel from injury. Now that both players are back, the 76ers’ defense is slowly starting to improve. Noel, for example, averages 1.6 steals per game, a high number for a big man. Carter-Williams has the length at point guard to disrupt perimeter penetration, and Tony Wroten is physically fit to guard Monta Ellis. Things won’t be as easy for Dallas this time around going up against a healthier Sixers team.

Dirk Nowitzki, though, was absolute money against Philly in the first meeting. He was guarded mostly by Hollis Thompson and Brandon Davies en route to scoring 21 points on just eight shots. Without him tonight, other Dallas players will need to fill the scoring void. Chandler Parsons, Ellis, Devin Harris, and the rest of the offense-heavy roster will all need to chip in just a little extra. After seeing how Parsons and Monta played last night, we should feel pretty confident about that.

The Mavs’ defense recovered well from two tough nights against the Pacers and Knicks, as Dallas held Toronto to just a 102.0 offensive rating in Friday’s win. (The Raptors score 110.7 points per 100 for the season, second in the league behind only Dallas.) That would mean you should expect another strong performance against Philly, a team that just hasn’t managed to put it together on offense just yet. The Sixers rank dead-last in eFG and offensive efficiency.

However, as Dallas learned against Indiana last week, desperate teams are dangerous. Philly does not want to go to 0-16, just two losses away from tying the all-time worst record to start a season. With their next two games at home, now is the time for the Sixers to snap the skid. And especially considering the amount of time off they’ve had coming into this one, I expect them to be flying all over the court tonight, looking to take advantage of the Mavs’ heavy legs.

This is the type of game where, if you’re Dallas, you want to “end” it as quickly as possible. Rick Carlisle doesn’t want Monta Ellis or Dirk to play 30+ minutes against a team his team should be handily. The Mavs must look to eliminate all doubt as early in this one as possible so Philly’s youthful energy won’t push the 76ers to a win.

The Mavericks can make that easy by taking advantage of the Philly offense’s biggest weakness: turnovers. The 76ers are dead-last in turnover ratio, averaging just 1.09 assists for every giveaway. The Mavs capitalize on turnovers better than just about any other club in the NBA. If Dallas can turn Philly mistakes into easy points, the Mavs can turn a small lead into a big lead very quickly, similar to the way they kept pulling away from Toronto last night. That’s up to Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, and the rest of the Mavs full-court squad. It’s been so much fun watching them play in the open floor this season.

Again, Dallas can’t get caught up in the record. Every team in the NBA is capable of beating every other team on any given night. Much, much crazier things have happened. That said, Dallas plays its game on both ends of the floor, the Mavs have to like their chances. The way to do it is not by sitting back and expecting to win. Dallas must force the issue early and often, imposing its will on the 76ers from the opening tip. If we see that, we’ll see a W.