Game 3 preview: learning from the past is crucial in swing games

The Mavericks in these playoffs have been outstanding in the area of learning from mistakes.

Look no further than the fact that they have not lost consecutive games yet in this postseason.

Now, as they prepare for Games 3 and 4 at American Airlines Center against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Western Conference semifinals, there’s no better time to continue their learning process.

Josh Green knows as much. As he pulled on a nice vest over his white dress shirt in the postgame locker room on Thursday after the Game 2 win at OKC, Green could not overstate the importance of not repeating history.

“It’s home. We need to make sure we win those games,” Green said. “It’s always fun to be home. I’m looking forward to playing in front of Mavs’ fans again. So for us, they’re must-win. Every game’s a must-win.”

At this point, he’s right. About must-win games and remembering that they already have lost once at home in these playoffs.

Before the start of the first round against the Clippers, we wrote that the Mavericks probably would have to win twice in LA to win the series.

They did that.

And they may have to do the same in this series.

The home court just ain’t what it used to be. And it’s no fault of the fans. The Thunder’s backers on Thursday went berserk. Mavericks fans did the same in the first round.

But it couldn’t stop a Game 4 loss against the Clippers at AAC. Teams are just that good. They get on a roll and are tough to stop. That’s just the way the playoffs – and these playoffs in particular – go.

Daniel Gafford, who was a big producer in Game 2 with 13 points and seven rebounds, said the educational part of the series is ongoing, particularly when it comes to guarding the Thunder.

“We want to force these guys into the three (pointer),” Gafford said. “And they want to try to finish at the basket a majority of the time.

“And one of the things coach (Jason) Kidd always says is the chemistry and the trust (have to be there) when it comes to our defensive schemes. So once we figure out ways to get past those lessons every time in a positive way, it’s going to help us in the long run.”

Effort isn’t a problem. The Mavericks showed that in the two games at Oklahoma City. And they got what they needed, which was a split.

A tougher brand of basketball was on display by the Mavericks Thursday night especially. The first place it was obvious was in the rebounding department. They more than held their own after getting pounded on the boards in Game 1.

And it was a major reason why they were able to level the series at a win apiece. If the Mavericks can win their home games the rest of the way, they’ll be in the Western Conference finals.

If only it were as easy as it sounds.

Here’s what to look for in the pivotal Game 3:

• How important is Game 3 in a 1-1 series? It’s a swing game, for sure. Teams that win that game go on to take a best-of-seven series nearly 74 percent of the time (196-69). And the Mavericks were part of the equation in the first round this season when they (along with Boston and Indiana) helped teams go 3-0 when they picked off Game 3 in a 1-1 series.
• We here at Mavs Central are big believers in rebounding being a crucial element of winning. It’s an effort stat, more than anything else. And the rebounding disparity in Game 1 was a major problem for the Mavericks. They got beat 52-39 on the glass. In Game 2, the Mavericks won the glass 44-41. We’re not going to oversimplify it, but it’s an important stat. You don’t necessarily have to dominate the rebounding, but it helps if you can get close to a push. Or better. Before Game 2, coach Jason Kidd said: “They just played harder than us in Game 1. They were the ones that came out and hit first. And kept hitting us. We got to absorb the hit but we got to be able to fight back. And we just didn’t fight back in Game 1 when you talk about the rebounding.” In Game 2, they most certainly hit first and responded when the Thunder hit back.
• By the way, the Thunder are a relatively small team and have a reputation as a marginal rebounding team. But coach Mark Daigneault said that, since the All-Star break, his team has been better. “Rebounding hasn’t been a strength of our team this year, but it doesn’t mean it’s not an emphasis,” he said. “We’ve been a pretty good rebounding team since the All-Star break.” He’s right. Before the break, they were getting beat by an average of four rebounds per game. Afterward, they were 0.1 ahead per game.
• Dončić had perhaps his best game since suffering his sprained knee in Game 3 of the first round against the Clippers. He had 29 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. He was 5-of-8 from three-point range. In the four games before that, he was 5-for-35.
• The Thunder were 5-0 in the playoffs before Thursday. They had swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round. Now it’s their turn to see if they can avoid two losses in a row. That’s been a point of emphasis for the Thunder this season. “You always have to guard against allowing the emotion from yesterday impact today,” coach Mark Daigneault said.
• The Mavericks are favored by 2½ points and the over/under is 218.5 points.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (1-1) at MAVERICKS (1-1)

When: 2:30 p.m., Saturday

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas.

TV: ABC (Channel 8)

Radio: KEGL 97.1 FM The Eagle; 99.1 FM Zona MX (Spanish)

X: @ESefko