The Mavs won today’s draft tiebreaker by random draw and now sit third place in the pre-lottery draft order.
Both Dallas and Atlanta finished with a 24-58 record this season, tied for third-fewest in the NBA. The two teams will split the difference between the third- and fourth-place odds in the draft lottery, which will take place next month. Today’s draw was to determine pre-lottery draft order.
Dallas has a 13.8 percent chance to win the No. 1 overall pick, while Atlanta will have a nearly identical 13.7 percent chance. Both teams will have roughly a 42 percent chance at a top-three pick. (The randomized lottery drawing only determines the order for the first three picks in the draft.)
The draw had little to do with odds related to winning the lottery, but there is a significant benefit to winning in case teams behind them in the lottery order get lucky on May 15. If neither Dallas nor Atlanta wins a top-three pick, the Mavericks will pick before Atlanta on draft night. The Mavs now have a 95 percent chance to pick somewhere in the top-five and will pick no lower than sixth. Atlanta, meanwhile, will pick no lower than seventh. For a better visualization of the odds, see the chart below from the Hawks’ KL Chouinard.
By virtue of losing the pre-lottery tiebreaker, Atlanta will choose third in the second round, or 33rd overall. Dallas will select fourth that round, or 34th overall. The Mavericks also acquired Portland’s second-round pick via Denver in the three-way trade for Doug McDermott, which will fall 54th overall.
The draft lottery takes place in New York on May 15.