Depleted teams are desperate, and desperate teams can be dangerous.

That’s exactly the case for the Indiana Pacers tonight. The 2013-14 Eastern Conference runners-up to Miami, the Pacers have already been without Paul George, George Hill, David West, and CJ Watson for the entire season. The first three were starters on last season’s No. 1 seed in the East, and Watson was the backup point guard.

Now, Indiana will be doing battle without Roy Hibbert and could also be without CJ Miles, and Rodney Stuckey, both of whom are questionable for tonight’s game. Hibbert is widely regarded as one of the best defensive centers in basketball, Miles always plays well in Dallas, and Stuckey is a double-digit scorer.

The Pacers are going to be short a lot of talent tonight, whether or not the trio of questionable players all suit up. However, that isn’t to say it’s going to be an easy win. The Pacers are once again a top-10 defense. Under Frank Vogel, Indiana has always played a grind-it-out style on both ends of the floor in an attempt to keep the game in the 90s or even 80s.

That style, obviously, does not match up with what the Mavs are looking to do. This game is going to be a battle of styles, and whichever team can impose its will on the game could be the one to win. It’s been impossible this season to “outscore” the Mavs — in order to defeat Dallas, the opponent must force them into an off shooting night. If the Mavs can push the pace and shoot at a decent clip, Dallas can win. However, if the stout Pacers D can influence the Mavs offense in any way, it’s going to be a dogfight.

OFFENSE
Mavs Offense Pacers Defense
Points/100 poss. 115.9 (1) 101.6 (9)
eFG% 54.5 (1) 48.3 (10)
TOV% 11.9 (3) 12.2 (T-29)
Off/Def Reb% 26.7 (T-8) 77.8 (4)
FT/FGA .264 (T-21) .262 (T-8)

The Pacers’ defensive strategy is pretty simple: They just work hard. Everything is built around a healthy Roy Hibbert, who has for years been one of the best rim protectors in the NBA. The center blocks 2.8 shots per game this season and holds opponents to a 38.5 field goal percentage at the rim, by far the best in the league.

Part of Hibbert’s impact can’t directly be measured by statistics, though. His presence alone is enough to dictate the opponent’s offensive scheme, as players generally avoid attacking him. The matchup is looking much more favorable for the Mavs’ stable of guards — including Raymond Felton, who might be active tonight for the first time all season — now that Hibbert has officially been ruled out.

The Mavs will have a much easier path to the basket without Hibbert, but the Pacers are still a well-equipped defensive team. Lavoy Allen and former Maverick Ian Mahinmi are both respectable defenders themselves, but it’s impossible to replace the impact Hibbert has defensively. He’s just a monster on that end of the floor. It would be like Dallas trying to replace Dirk Nowitzki on offense. You can’t measure the impact of transcendent players like that unless you lose them.

I suspect with Hibbert sitting out, the Pacers might take a few more chances on defense. Currently, they’re tied for last in opp. turnover ratio, as they just sit back and make you take bad shots. But without their man in the middle, they might jump a passing lane here or there to prevent any type of easy looks. Of course, the gamble you make there is if you attempt a steal or deflection but fail, the offensive player is going to have an easy shot. And Dallas makes easy shots.

DEFENSE
Mavs Defense Pacers Offense
Points/100 poss. 103.0 (13) 97.3 (28)
eFG% 51.1 (T-22) 46.6 (27)
TOV% 18.5 (1) 16.6 (25)
Off/Def Reb% 71.3 (30) 29.4 (2)
FT/FGA .272 (11) .250 (27)

All these injuries have really transformed the Pacers’ offensive approach. Indiana’s three-point attempts are up 19 percent this season and their free throw attempts are down 12 percent.

This is going to be another battle of the boards. Without Hibbert, Indiana is still an elite offensive rebounding team: Four Pacers grab more OREBs per game than Hibbert. All told, six players secure at least one second chance for the team per game.

Against a team with poor shooting percentages, the last thing the Mavs will want to do is give that team a second chance. Dallas must crash the glass and crash it hard, especially on their defensive basket, else the Pacers will make them pay.

Fortunately for the Mavs, their greatest strength plays right to Indiana’s biggest weakness. The Pacers turn it over 15.5 times per game, and Dallas feasts on teams that cannot take care of the ball. Even against the Lakers, who turned it over just 10 times, the Mavs were able to score 20 points off TOs. Things could really get out of hand if Dallas can force the Pacers to make several mistakes, and generally that happens when a team’s two top point guards are out injured.

Chandler Parsons will be the man responsible for checking Indiana’s most dangerous offensive player, Chris Copeland. The gangly combo forward leads the team in field goal attempts (12.9) and three-point attempts (6.8). He also leads the team in turnovers at 2.8 per game. It will be up to the long Parsons to keep active hands and force Copeland into making difficult passes — and, of course, difficult shots, and Parsons did a tremendous job defensively against Kobe Bryant Friday against LA.

One thing you’re sure to hear Mavs head coach Rick Carlisle say tonight is it doesn’t matter who’s dressing for Indiana. Similarly, the Mavs players have echoed again and again in recent weeks that they’re not worried about anything but what goes on in their own locker room, their own practices, etc. Dallas won’t salivate when it sees the inactive list — the Mavs better not, because Indiana is still capable of bumping and bruising their way to a win.

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