What To Watch For: Mavs at Blazers

At the time of the Mavs’ only visit to Portland last season, Dallas and the Blazers were in slightly different positions than they are now. Last season, the upstart Blazers surged out to a league-best 17-3 mark when the inconsistent 12-8 Mavs pulled into town and left with a buzzer-beating win, thanks to Monta Ellis’s brilliant pull-up jump shot off a play we’d see time and time again later in the year, all the way to the playoffs. Portland ultimately won 54 games and the Mavs finished at 49. The Blazers won a playoff series and the Mavericks did not.

This season, however, expectations are similar for both teams. The Blazers were a surprise last season after not having qualified for the playoffs the year before. Meanwhile, more is expected from Dallas this season than the last. The Mavs have the league’s best offense and one of the best starting lineups in basketball. This season, 12-8 would be a disappointment after 20 games.

In that same vein, the Blazers’ 2-2 record is perceived by some as a disappointing start. Portland is a young-ish team, led by an MVP candidate last season in LaMarcus Aldridge and third-year point guard Damian Lillard. There’s no way the Blazers are going to want to start 2-3, and after a convincing win against the Cleveland Cavaliers a couple nights ago, they’ll be looking to carry that momentum into tonight’s contest.

This will be the toughest defense Dallas has faced this season since the season opener in San Antonio. Backed by their noisy home crowd, the Blazers have been able to suffocate teams at home, forcing turnovers almost one out of every six possessions at the Moda Center this season. This will also already be Portland’s fourth home game of the young season.

The defense is anchored by Robin Lopez, one of the better rim protectors and rebounders in the game. Starting small forward Nic Batum is one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, as well. This is the first game of the season in which the Mavs’ opponent will have strong defenders at both the shooting guard and small forward. Batum’s sidekick, Wes Matthews, has size for his position and can use that in hopes of limiting Ellis’s effectiveness. That, again, is one key to stopping the Mavericks this season — the Mavs score 15.8 points per game off of Ellis drives, per SportVU, the most in the league by 2.5 points.

That means Batum will guard Chandler Parsons, who’s been on an absolute tear the last three games, averaging 23.3 on 56.8 percent from the field and 50 percent from deep. His contributions have obviously had a tremendously positive influence on the team in those contests. It’s a tall order for Batum to check one of the most versatile wings in the league, but as we saw for so many years with Shawn Marion, it’s not an easy job being an elite perimeter defender. Every night, you’re faced with another big challenge. So far this season, though, he’s completed his job: LeBron James shot just 4-of-12 against Batum when the Cavs came through town on Tuesday.

Dirk Nowitzki, then, could end up being the go-to guy against Portland. Aldridge is a fine defender, to be sure, but Nowitzki notched 23.3 points per game in three meetings last season. The Mavs rode Dirk long and hard against Portland in 2013-14 — his 32.8 usage rate against the Blazers was his second-highest against any opponent, topped only by his 33.5 rate against the New Orleans Pelicans. Another strategy could be to rely on the point guards to generate offense. If you remember last season’s December meeting in Portland, the Blazers willingly allowed Jose Calderon to drive the lane and finish uncontested at the rim five times throughout the game, opting to let him run wild in favor of keeping watchful eyes on Nowitzki, Ellis, and the rest of the Mavericks shooters.

Two keys from the four factors immediately jump off the page. The Mavs’ 66.1 DRB% is lowest in the league. Small sample size is going to wildly skew numbers, so the Celtics’ 22 offensive boards Monday night are a huge contributing factor to that stat. However, Dallas must make sure to limit second-chance opportunities for Portland, because they typically turn either into put-back dunks or open three-pointers. Those are momentum-changing plays, and in an arena where the crowd very clearly affects the game, the Mavs cannot allow too many.

The next is turnover rate. Dallas has done an excellent job of jumping passing lanes and forcing mistakes by opposing guards, but Portland is one of the league’s best teams when it comes to holding on to the ball. In the same way that second chances are momentum-shifting moments, so too are fast break chances for the Mavs the other way. That’s one element of this year’s team that was missing from last season’s squad, and Chandler Parsons has a lot to do with it. Dallas is always looking to run downhill after forcing a turnover, so if the Mavs can sneak in front of an interior pass or deflect a cross-court pass out of the zone defense, it will be important to surge down the floor and score some points.

This season’s defense has thrived on anticipation, and that could very well come into play tonight. Blazers head coach Terry Stotts was the “offensive coordinator” of the Mavs’ 2011 title team. While he obviously doesn’t run the same exact system of offense in Portland as those Mavs, there are some similar elements, and the Mavs roster has surely been extensively briefed on those similarities.

If Dallas can contain Lillard, the Mavs have a very good chance of winning. The All-Star guard is off to a poor shooting start this season, converting field goals at just a 31.5 percent rate. However, he’s shooting 37.5 percent on eight treys per game, so Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, and JJ Barea have a tough task in front of them: How do you defend a player who shoots so many threes? If you crowd him too much, Lillard has the quickness to blow by you and then either find a shooter or create for himself. But if you back off in fear of a drive, he’s probably going to drop three points on you. It’s a difficult problem, but it’s one the Mavs must solve tonight.

When April rolls around, it’s very likely these two teams will be jockeying for playoff position. This is a good barometer for measuring how far the Dallas defense has come after the first few games and practices of the season, and it’s an even better measuring stick for gauging how the Mavs can respond when playing in an adverse environment. The Blazers crowd is going to bring it. If the Mavs can get Dirk going, limit those momentum plays, and keep Lillard out of the high-20s, Dallas stands a very good chance of winning the game. Regardless, tonight is going to be a tough, exhilarating challenge.